Maine Senate Race

Last Friday we hosted a fundraiser for LCV’s program to defeat Susan Collins in Maine. Little did we know how essential it would be. It’s not too late to contribute. I’ve added an opening here about why the race is even more important, and then make the case for the LCV program:

Ginsburg was an intellectual, moral, and legal giant whose contributions to our country are the stuff of history. But in this political environment, that is all forgotten as the street fight intensifies. Within a couple hours of her death, Mitch McConnell released a statement that closed with the line, “President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.”

We’ve seen this film once already: Collins is stuck between a conservative, evangelical GOP base in Maine and one of the more liberal electorates in the United States. She advertises her independence — but again and again she folds to the pressure of both Mitch McConnell and her base.

Her strong statement that she will not support a vote to fill the Supreme Court vacancy before the election will gain her an enormous amount of free media coverage, just as most voters start tuning in. She’ll drown out her Democratic challenger, Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon, without spend a dime, leaving Gideon at a disadvantage. And it will be, at best, misleading.

Collins is generally the “weak link” in the GOP caucus. If we can make this as challenging as possible for Collins that opens the possibility that other GOP Senators in competitive Senate races may follow. Call it the “Domino Theory” of Supreme Court Confirmations. But if McConnell manages to pressure Susan Collins to his side, then we don’t have much of a chance of breaking off other GOP Senators from McConnell’s majority.

We must keep up the pressure to beat Collins. In Maine, LCV will continue to highlight that she has walked away from her avowed “independence” and is instead catering to the conservative, white evangelical voters who make up the base of Maine’s Republican party. Winning control of the Senate would allow Biden to address climate change/justice, stem the current direction of judicial appointees, and (I don’t have to tell you) much, much more.

LCV is ready to hit the ground right now — literally Monday — in Maine, thanks to some of the funds we raised Friday. But we need more to give ourselves the best possible chance of beating Collins. The stakes are even higher now (if you can imagine that being the case) and Maine is THE epicenter given Collins’ Kavanaugh vote.

I was back and forth yesterday with Pete Maysmith of LCV about what more they can do in Maine. Of course, a threshold question is if they have the budget to fully fund their get out the vote (GOTV) program and expand their paid communications work.

If there is ever a time to donate to a key Senate race it’s now. Here is the link for giving that you can forward to friends: http://bit.ly/niccolcvmaine

My original pitch:

I love New England oh yes I do. And I’m nervously watching the Maine Senate race. I won’t be able to forgive myself if Collins wins by a few thousand votes and keeps McConnell Senate Majority Leader — blocking climate change policy, among other important priorities.

So I’m pulling out all the stops. Tomorrow at 2pm I’m co-hosting with Bob Taylor an intimate discussion with my old colleague (from 20 years ago!) Pete Maysmith. Pete leads the political campaign work at the League of Conservation Voters, and I’ll be interviewing him about the state of Maine. It’s part of a last minute fundraising push to fund an expanded program for LCV in Maine. It’ll be a small Zoom so you can come with your questions.

Give here: http://bit.ly/niccolcvmaine

If you can’t make it, but you’re still interested, let me know and I’ll find a time for us to talk. I’m in deep and have made a substantial personal financial commitment, terrifying my beloved wife.

Here’s my pitch for this program:

Why Maine?

With many competing priorities this election cycle, Maine stands out for three reasons:

1. 3 for 1: It is not just a close, competitive Senate race — it is also a competitive House seat, and a competitive electoral vote. It’s a three-for-one. The Senate is especially important in the context of climate policy action in 2021 and beyond.
2. Battleground: Maine is not a battleground state so opportunity to deploy “battleground” resource/tactics to make a difference. Because it is not a battleground state, it is underfunded for a key Senate seat. How horrible it will feel if Collins wins by a few thousand votes and keeps McConnell Senate Majority Leader — blocking climate change policy?
3. We love New England. It’s that simple.

Why LCV?

With a competitive Senate and House race in Maine, why give to LCV?

1. Infrastructure: Campaigns come and go and are incentivized to make short-term decisions. Investing in long-term infrastructure is essential to building muscle over time (instead of just in an election year). Consequently I always recommend putting funds in state parties (IF AND ONLY IF they are run by a strong, competent leader) and independent organizations like LCV or Planned Parenthood. As part of our due diligence speaking with both national and local groups, it is clear that LCV has the strongest turnout program in the country. Additionally, my own commitment to climate policy makes LCV the natural choice.
2. Local politics: The Democratic Party in Maine is split between a climate-focused faction (mostly in Southern Maine) and a more pro-industry faction (mostly in Northern Maine). Working with LCV in Maine reinforces the importance of climate policy.

LCVVF’s Plan in Maine

• Uniquely positioned in Maine — LCV has the state-wide infrastructure as well as the national expertise to make a difference.
• Shovel ready to deploy in Maine — we can spend the money immediately with impact.
• Tactics include phone calls, text messages to positive IDs, postcards to positive IDs, digital ads, direct mail.
• Our comprehensive plan includes field, digital, and mail components in order to run the following programs:
• Vote-by-mail recruitment: This program will focus on encouraging voters to vote by mail by providing education around the process and a reminder to fill out an absentee ballot request.
• Ballot chase: Once ballots are mailed out, we will push our target voters who have requested ballots to fill out their ballots and return them, either by mail or in person.
• Early Voting (“Absentee-in-person”): Maine voters can vote before Election Day through a process called absentee in-person voting. The period for absentee in-person voting runs from Monday, October 5, 2020 to Friday, October 30, 2020, (though dates and hours may vary based on location.) Our program would educate and mobilize voters to vote before election day.
• Election day in-person mobilization: If voting by mail and early voting are not of interest, or are no longer available, voters will be given information on how to vote in person on Election Day.
• Relational organizing: Using Vote Tripling’s model for relational organizing, our mobilization scripts will include an ask for voters to remind three friends or family members to vote. This communication will be followed up with a text message two weeks out from election day, reminding the voter of the commitment they had made to remind their three friends to vote.
• Ballot curing and voter protection (tentative): In states where we can acquire data in a timely manner on which ballots have been rejected, it may be worthwhile to run a program to educate and assist voters through the ballot curing process.

LCVVF’s Record of Success

• LCVVF has deep and unrivaled expertise to execute large-scale field programs using a range of tested tactics to target and mobilize voters. We have a record of success in leveraging VBM to influence election outcomes, grounded in multiple cycles of work in Montana, including the last four federal elections.
• During the 2018 election cycle in Montana, LCV VF generated 19,650 VBM applications from our targeted universe of 116,000 voters (17%). The voters we targeted for mail ballots had a 73% turnout rate, higher than the statewide rate. This boost in turnout helped Senator Jon Tester win reelection and, for the first time in three elections, surpass 50% of the vote total, all in a state that Trump won by more than 20% in 2016.

I hope you can donate today: http://bit.ly/niccolcvmaine